The Guatemalan crop is expected to be about 15% to 20% higher than earlier expected. Also the arrivals are beginning about a month earlier than what was expected by Indian Exporters.

It is understood that they have offered September end shipments for nearly 200 tons to the major buyers in the gulf region.

Although the shipments are likely to be of a lower liter weight for early shipments, it is likely to halt the tide of increasing prices in the gulf and consequently the exports out of India are likely to grind to a halt. Early price indications are between US$11.00 to US$16.00 per kilo and they will gradually decline as October closes in.

The Gulf & Saudi are already sufficiently covered for their Ramzan requirements with stocks of 400 to 500 tons in Gulf & between 500 to 700 tons in Saudi. A further 300 tons have already been contracted from India for September and October shipments.

Last year, purchases after Ramzan were much higher than before Ramzan. As such, it is expected that the Guatemalan crop will be in time for that demand. All the above point to the decline in Indian exports from October itself if not a complete halt.

Consequent to the export demand and the combined Diwali demand, prices had shot up. However, as export and the domestic festival demand are likely to dry by Mid October, the prices are set for a crash. Consumer resistance at current prices and the bumper crop this year will push the prices down after October. For any real chance of exports picking up again, the prices have to fall to the Guatemalan levels. Otherwise, all efforts to regain dominance in the Cardamom market of the Spices Board will come to naught.

Go to the Archive

GO TO TOP